Daily News columnist Errol Louis dismisses as "hype" the assumption that Mayor Bloomberg has this November's election sewn up.Bloomberg may already have racked up $18.6 million for "flacks, hacks, pollsters and preachers" -- $15 million of it in the past 2 months for TV, radio and direct mail advertising.
He may be spending at a rate double that of his 2005 campaign, which cost a record-breaking $80 million.
He may have been skewered by President Obama at the recent White House Correspondents Association dinner as "a leader who rules over millions with an iron first, owns the airwaves, and uses his power to crush all who would challenge his authority at the ballot box..."
But Louis sees hints that the mayoral race could get much closer by November.
Hint #1: Bloomberg's three-month $15 million advertising blitz hasn't moved key poll numbers.
Hint #2: The electorate is now divided 47% to 48% over whether Bloomberg deserves a third term, with 47% in favor of a third term and 48% against. This is not good news for Bloomberg, who has tried to downplay his city council end-run around the term limits law.
Hint #3: Voters don't support the mayor's stance on education, the issue on which he has staked his political reputation. In what is seen as a rebuke, 60% of registered voters say they want control of the schools removed from city hall and turned over to an advisory panel.
Hint #4: Corporate titans like Bloomberg aren't as popular these days as they were 8 years ago. In these hard times, voters are more drawn to sympathetic leaders who understand what it's like for struggling families.
The mayor's approval rating is still 57% - up 7 points since February - and most New Yorkers think the city is on the right track. Bloomberg's presumptive Democratic opponent, Bill Thompson, despite his 30 years in public service, is still an unknown to many. But it would be cynical, says Louis, to assume that money will trump values this early in the game.
The Daily News column:
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2009/05/24/2009-05-24_why_earths_richest_mayor_wont_coast_to_a_third_term.html
